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What does the resumption of Chinese enterprises mean to the world? [Global Times Comprehensive Report] Editor's Note: On February 10, most regions of the country overcame the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and ushered in resumed production. This has special significance not only for the Chinese economy, but also for the world economy-after all, China is the largest export destination country of 33 countries in the world and the largest import source country of 65 countries including the United States. More realistic analysis than “finding alternatives to Chinese suppliers is no easy task”, “the epidemic continues, equivalent to a de-globalization experiment”, and more realistic is that Danish mink farmers canceled a fur auction because Chinese merchants were absent, Barcelona The mobile phone show may be greatly affected ...

And some media have previously worried that if Chinese companies can't resume work as soon as possible, the global supply chain of many industries such as automobiles and electronics may fall into chaos. In this regard, Chinese economists interviewed by reporters from the Global Times said that China has the advantages of a national system and its own development strategy, and will definitely resume economic activities in an orderly manner under the strict prevention and control of the epidemic.

"German automotive industry loses 72 million euros per day" "Wuhan is a major industrial center in China, where the headquarters of Dongfeng Motor Corporation, one of China's largest automotive companies, also supplies products to Russia." Russia "News The newspaper quoted Russian economist Leonid Hazanov as saying on the 9th. The article also mentioned that due to the outbreak in China, Okamas Motors also lacked components.

The article in the Russian "Newspaper" on the 6th regarded China's new crown pneumonia epidemic as the "Black Swan Incident" in 2020. The article argues that although the epidemic has not spread rapidly outside China, the potential economic losses around the world can be substantial. The affected industries are mainly the automotive industry, microelectronics and high-tech industries, the hotel industry and the aviation sector, and the luxury market. According to IHS Markit estimates, global automakers will reduce production by 350,000 cars in the first quarter.

Due to a shortage of Chinese parts, Hyundai Motors has suspended production lines at its South Korean plant. Tesla has warned to delay the supply of Model 3 assembled in Shanghai. Toyota, General Motors and Volkswagen have reported similar difficulties. Airbus stopped production at its Tianjin plant, which produces about six A320 aircraft per month. The Parisian newspaper reported the recent situation of French companies such as Peugeot Citroen with production lines in China. Entrepreneurs producing auto parts said, "Customers are very anxious, and the company's inventory will be enough to maintain until mid-March, and then there will be no trouble if there is no goods."

"China provides power to the world's auto industry." German TV One said on the 9th that the auto industry in Germany, France, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Italy all relied heavily on products delivered from China. Global auto production may come to a standstill. Ferdinand Dudenhoff, director of the Automotive Research Center at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany, reminded the German government that in Germany, no industry is as closely linked to China as the automotive industry. He called on the German government and EU policy makers to provide China with more emergency medical assistance.

According to data from the Automobile Research Center, in 2019, a total of 15.9 million cars were manufactured in Germany and abroad, of which one-third, or about 5.2 million, were sold in China. From the perspective of automobile sales, the total annual sales of the German automotive industry is 430 billion euros, of which 150 billion euros are realized in China, accounting for about 35%. If calculated on the basis of China's 251 working days per year, the German automotive industry's daily turnover in China is 600 million euros and the profit is 60 million euros. China delayed construction for one day, and the German auto industry lost 72 million euros a day.

At present, there are more than 300 German auto companies that have factories in China, and some of their subordinate factories have resumed work on February 10. Volkswagen manager Eitu told the Global Times reporter that due to the impact of the epidemic, at present, staff at the German headquarters are temporarily unable to travel to China, but he believes that the epidemic will soon pass. In addition to the automotive industry, the German mechanical engineering industry and the electrical industry were also affected by the epidemic. It is understood that there are more than 800 machinery manufacturers from Germany operating in China, of which 350 have production bases in China. A reporter from the Global Times contacted a Shanghai company supplying German EBM-PAPST fans on the afternoon of the 10th, and the answer was "resumption of work".

According to data from the German Electrical and Electronics Industry Association (ZVEI), Germany will export 22 billion euros of goods to China in 2019, while importing 52 billion euros of products from China. The association hopes that China can overcome the epidemic as soon as possible, which will have a smaller impact on the German electrical industry. "What are the similarities between Buzz Lightyear (toys), Adidas Ultra Boost running shoes, Tesla Model3 and iPad Pro?" The Gulf Times of the UAE on the 9th gave the answer: "Of course it's all China (Production). "The article states that it is not yet possible to assert the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but judging from the importance of China in the global economy over the past 20 years, economists believe that the epidemic may cause the world to lose more than 360 billion US dollars.

In addition to the automobile manufacturing industry, credit insurance company Yuli Anyi estimates that if China's factories are not resumed, the world will face a trade shock of 26 billion U.S. dollars, among which the electronics, computer and other industries and some airlines will be the most affected. The French "Le Figaro" believes that if China's economy slows down, factories are shut down, and the industrial chain stops, it will directly affect the trend of the world economy. After China is hit by the epidemic, the EU's exports to China will slow down sharply, which will cause the EU's economic losses. Among them, Germany and Italy, which export more to China, will suffer the most.

French pharmaceutical group Sanofi has many subsidiaries in China and employs nearly 8,000 people. Now the group requires Chinese subsidiaries to pay close attention to the supply of pharmaceutical raw materials and resume production as soon as possible. The person in charge of the group said: "The customers are from any country, so the production chain cannot be stopped, otherwise it will cause major problems in business." According to the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry, many French electronics industry owners and computer suppliers are also worried. Delays in the production of Chinese electronics will directly affect their purchase channels and sales.

"The Washington Post" on the 3rd described the worries of the Ohio Phantom Fireworks Company. The company said that if the fireworks company in Liuyang, Hunan, which is only 300 to 400 kilometers away from Wuhan, has not resumed work on the 10th, it will affect the demand for fireworks to celebrate American Independence Day on July 4 this year. A New Jersey-based pharmaceutical company that relies on Chinese raw materials to produce hypertension, Alzheimer's and depression drugs has similar concerns. Many international public opinion began to compare the impact of the Chinese economy on the global industrial chain after the SARS outbreak in 2003. Alexander Lochev, general manager of the Russian money management company, said that unlike during the SARS period, China has now become more integrated into the global chain.

The Washington Post recently quoted Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, as saying that the new crown pneumonia epidemic had "no substantial impact on the US economy." Most Wall Street economists have also said that economic damage will be relatively limited. Economists at JP Morgan Chase Bank lowered their global growth forecast for the first quarter of this year by 0.3 percentage points to 2.3%. But they predict that after the crisis, China and the global economy will return to normal levels before the crisis in the middle of this year. This optimistic forecast is based on the rapid recovery of the Chinese economy after the SARS epidemic in 2003.

According to the 8th issue of CNN, China has become an integral part of global economic and trade since the end of the SARS epidemic in 2003. Not only is China the world's factory, it is also driving demand for commodities such as oil and copper. China also has a large number of wealthy consumers who are buying luxury goods, cars, and traveling around the world. In 2003, China's share of the world economy was only about 4%, but today it should be as high as 16%.

Therefore, economists said that the current impact is still under control. If the number of new infections starts to decrease and factories in China resume work soon, the impact of the epidemic on China ’s economy will be “ephemeral,” with only global growth Weak influence. If the epidemic continues to spread, economic damage will increase dramatically. The article cited a World Bank study saying that "a severe epidemic will cause a global loss of nearly 5% of GDP, exceeding US $ 3 trillion". For example, the relatively weak 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic also caused "loss" in global GDP. 0.5%.

New crown virus will not stop the globalization process. "The spread of the new crown virus is equivalent to a de-globalization experiment. How much global economic growth will still suffer will depend on how soon the virus can be contained." The Financial Times A recent article entitled "New Crown Virus Causes Global Reversal" explores the impact of the epidemic on China and the global economy. The article said, "Chinese factories are a key component of the global supply chain, and Chinese tourists account for a larger proportion of global traffic."

"Reverse globalization has not been able to stop the process of globalization." Chen Yan, executive director of the Japanese Enterprise (China) Research Institute, told the Global Times reporter on the 10th. He said that in the process of economic globalization, Japanese companies provided cutting-edge parts and components to Chinese companies, and Chinese companies completed production of products, which were then supplied to China, Japan and the global consumer market. Among the five major components of the Japanese machinery industry, in addition to the production of weapons, transportation vehicles such as automobiles, electronic products such as home appliances, precision machinery such as cameras, and machine tools such as machine tools all have close cooperation with China, and all adopt an assembly line method. Therefore, as soon as China's economy is in trouble, the Japanese economy will be affected.

But Chen Yan said that he had not heard of Japanese companies that are closely related to the Chinese economy. Japan is a country with frequent natural disasters. Many companies emphasize risk management on a daily basis, have the ability to respond to short-term power outages, water shortages, and traffic interruptions, and also have short-term preparations for infectious and epidemic diseases. Chen Yan said: "In the process of globalization, Japanese companies have spent nearly 30 years in concentrated investment in China. If you think about it, it is impossible to" retreat "or transfer investment because of an emergency such as the epidemic. It is absolutely impossible to do so. "He believes that at present, Japanese companies can do together with China to reduce the negative impact caused by the epidemic.

"There is a saying in the German economic community: China sneezes, Germany will catch a cold. Now that China is outbreaking, the German economy is also facing a test." Eun Kaspur, an international economist at the University of Hamburg, told the Global Times. He said that as long as the epidemic situation is overcome as soon as possible and the Sino-US economic and trade frictions have been resolved in stages, the world economy can immediately recover its strong momentum. Relevant Chinese and German companies should abide by the Chinese government's regulations, and should resume production as soon as possible. Kasper also emphasized that the key is that companies have confidence.

Manufacturing nations will not "overreact" Isaac Seinfitz, a consultant from Minnesota, wrote in the Star Tribune on the 7th: "The epidemic will force companies to be more flexible in their supply chains." US media also called for Businesses need to be prepared for sudden situations: high-risk countries affected by the epidemic need to increase the transparency of their supply chains, balance supply and demand, increase regulatory inventory, and diversify their supplier ecosystems through other countries. Important nodes of components are placed in a single country or region. "

In this regard, Zuo Xiaolei, a researcher at the Financial Research Center of the State Council's Counselor, told the Global Times on the 10th that China is a global manufacturing center and its comparative advantage in the global industrial chain has been formed. Therefore, the epidemic has some impact on the global economy. strange. For example, she said that Southeast Asian countries such as Singapore are concerned about the decrease in Chinese tourists. All industries provided by China are also worried about the impact. For example, the Apple iPhone in the United States is mainly assembled and produced in China, so the company recently asked Foxconn to resume production immediately. Manufacturing countries such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea have called for not "overreacting" to the outbreak in China, and do not want their related industries to be greatly affected.

Zuo Xiaolei said that China has the advantages of a nationwide system and its own development strategy. 2020 is the year to achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. The Chinese must fight a key battle. Under the situation of strict prevention and control of the epidemic, the situation continues to spread. Orderly restoration of economic activity. Researcher Picale of the French National Institute of Statistics and Economics told the Global Times reporter that he hopes that China will overcome the epidemic as soon as possible and resume economic operations-on the one hand, it will reduce the impact on the world economy, and on the other hand, it will prevent some international companies from adjusting their industrial layout. As a result, a new shock has been caused to the Chinese economy.

Chen Yan also said that it is conceivable that after the epidemic has passed, China's economy will accelerate its development, after SARS in 2003. China has relevant experience to refer to. Especially with the increase of modern technological means, China's economy itself will undergo new changes. For example, the advancement of information and logistics methods will allow centralized large-scale production and large-scale logistics to be dispersed to places close to consumers, to produce according to consumer needs, to allocate resources, and to shift production bases as consumers arise.
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